What you'll see happen to Gonzaga Bulldogs, South Carolina Gamecocks, Oregon Ducks and North Carolina Tar Heels at the Final Four before it happens
You're nervous. We get it.
We've reached the last stage of the 2016-17 season, and you're wondering about the future. The immediate future in college basketball.
No matter whom you support, you're making assumptions and living off theories. You're following the breaking-news ticker, hoping your favorite player is still good to go.
You just want your squad to play well for two more games. Just two.
But ....
Is Joel Berry II OK? Kinda. Will Oregon miss Chris Boucher? Probably. Can Frank Martin keep this going? Unlikely. And has Mark Few smiled yet? Only on the inside.
We would like to answer your questions and alleviate your angst. Or make it worse.
We're here to predict the future. Again.
Want a head start on the Final Four headlines from Glendale, Arizona? Well, we have them.
Saturday
South Carolina vs. Gonzaga
South Carolina blitzes Gonzaga, seizes promising lead at halftime
Throughout the NCAA tournament, South Carolina has forced turnovers on a minimum of 23 percent of its four opponents' possessions. The Gamecocks continue to limit scoring opportunities. That's how they generate a significant portion of their offense (18.1 points per game off turnovers, No. 2 in the country).
And they'll do the same against Gonzaga early on Saturday in their Final Four matchup. West Virginia scored 24 points off 16 turnovers against the Bulldogs in the Sweet 16, and South Carolina will also pressure Gonzaga into first-half stumbles.
Sindarius Thornwell is 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds. He's a unique athlete in college basketball. He missed practice on Thursday with what his coach called a bug, but if he plays, he's going to help the Gamecocks frustrate Nigel Williams-Goss and Gonzaga. Don't be surprised if Gonzaga enters halftime down seven or eight points. The Gamecocks are a bigger, more physical version of the West Virginia attack that nearly stopped the Bulldogs.
Przemek Karnowski picks up two quick fouls, but Zach Collins plays big
South Carolina's aggressive approach in its run to the NCAA tournament not only caused teams to mishandle possessions, but the Gamecocks also drew opponents into foul challenges. Marquette big man Luke Fischer drew two quick fouls in the first half of his team's loss to South Carolina in the first round. Same with Duke's Jayson Tatum in his team's loss to the Gamecocks. Baylor's Ishmail Wainright, the team's most versatile defender, offered a muted effort due to foul trouble as well. Florida's KeVaughn Allen and Chris Chiozza committed four fouls apiece against South Carolina in the Elite Eight.
Per KenPom.com, Thornwell (7.4), PJ Dozier (4.7) and Duane Notice (6.9) draw 19 fouls combined per 40 minutes. Their relentless approach will affect Karnowski, who could spend most of the first half on the bench with foul trouble. No worries for Gonzaga fans, though.
Collins, the freshman who could turn pro this summer, will enter the game and show he's capable of impacting a crucial matchup with major minutes before the break. Collins could save Gonzaga, which thrives on its depth.
Gonzaga's offensive firepower and defensive talent overwhelm South Carolina after the break, Bulldogs advance
Frank Martin authored a hell of a run to lead South Carolina to the Final Four, a first in school history. No matter what happens in Glendale, he's a legend at a school that limped into the NCAA tournament and got hot at the perfect time.
Before we consider any Sindarius Thornwell-Kemba Walker comparisons, however, remember Connecticut in 2010-11 enjoyed a solid offense all season. South Carolina is not even ranked in the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
And that's a problem for a team facing a Gonzaga squad that has connected on more than 50 percent of its field goal attempts this year. Yes, the Bulldogs have struggled in the NCAA tournament (43.2 percent from the field, per ESPN Stats & Information), but their offensive consistency throughout the past four months is not something South Carolina -- a team that registered just 53 points against Alabama in its SEC tournament loss -- can match.
The Bulldogs will launch a comeback in the second half, and down the stretch they'll outplay a Gamecocks squad that has made just 33.3 percent of its 3-point attempts this season and advance to the national championship game on Monday night.
Oregon vs. North Carolina
North Carolina sends Jordan Bell to the bench early with foul trouble, as Oregon misses Chris Boucher
When Bell is on the floor, the Ducks surrender just .96 points per possession (hooplens.com), a significant factor in their run to the national semifinals.
He blocked 12 shots in Oregon's first four games in the NCAA tournament -- including eight in the win over Kansas -- and committed just three fouls. That's how the Ducks sailed without the injured Boucher (2.5 BPG).
But North Carolina presents a different, more layered dilemma. Oregon has faced four teams that relied on guard play thus far. And the Ducks boast the most athletic backcourt in Glendale. However, the Tar Heels will attack in the paint like no team Oregon has played in the postseason.
North Carolina registered 34 points in the paint against Kentucky in the Elite Eight. And Malik Monk, Bam Adebayo and De'Aaron Fox all missed portions of the first half due to foul trouble because the Tar Heels just keep coming.
Kennedy Meeks gobbles offensive rebounds. Tony Bradley plays hard. Isaiah Hicks never stops. Then you have to deal with 6-8 guard-forward hybrid Justin Jackson, who is comfortable with his jump shot and midrange game.
That's a handful for any opponent. And while Bell has avoided foul trouble throughout the NCAA tournament, he'll draw the whistles against UNC. Early. He can't guard everyone in the post.
And the Ducks will miss Boucher, another shot-blocking terror who could have helped them defend this bombarding Tar Heels frontcourt, if he were healthy. For the first time in the NCAA tournament, Bell will have to be more prudent about his defensive tactics, due to concerns he'll pick up additional fouls.
Joel Berry II limps through another game but plays better
Let's make this clear: Berry will enter this game far from 100 percent. When he returned to North Carolina's win over Kentucky in the Elite Eight, after entering the locker room to deal with an ankle injury in the first half, he lacked the same lateral quickness, explosiveness and agility he had displayed all season. Later, Roy Williams revealed Berry had actually sprained both ankles in a 24-hour span.
Whoa.
Berry finished 4-for-12 from the field in Sunday's win. But Williams and the North Carolina training staff will make sure Berry gets the proper rest entering Saturday's game. That's the difference.
Berry will have more energy and mobility to help UNC defend Oregon's strong backcourt, and he'll produce a more efficient offensive effort after spending some time off those bad ankles.
Late comeback by the Ducks leads to another wild finish, but Tar Heels win
Oregon will never leave Glendale without a fight.
This is a squad that beat UCLA during the regular season on a Dillon Brooks buzzer-beater. This is a team that squeezed by Rhode Island in a come-from-behind win before it slid by Michigan and stomped Kansas in the NCAA tournament.
In the second half on Saturday, Bell will return, the Ducks will get more stops and the 3-pointers will start falling.
Tyler Dorsey is averaging 24.5 points per game in the NCAA tournament. And since the start of the Pac-12 tournament, he has made a ridiculous 57.8 percent of his 3-point attempts.
The Ducks lost just two games this season by four points or more. Opponents don't smack Dana Altman's squad. They're usually in the game in the final minutes.
On Saturday, Oregon will climb back into its battle against North Carolina down the stretch, too. Can't promise the late-game fireworks of North Carolina's win over Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
But Oregon's late production will change the game. Not the outcome, though.
North Carolina battled one of the nation's toughest slates this season. And the Tar Heels defeated one of the hottest teams in America last weekend to reach this stage. They're as clutch as any team in the country.
Look for Justin Jackson to seal this one for the Tar Heels in another thriller.
Monday
Gonzaga beats North Carolina to win the national championship, 76-72
Playing Tournament Challenge? Don't forget to check your brackets! Bracket busted? We have you covered with a Second Chance Bracket!
Gonzaga defeated Arizona, Iowa State, Florida and Saint Mary's (three times). And the Bulldogs still endured doubts about their postseason potential on Selection Sunday.
They beat West Virginia in the Sweet 16, despite surrendering nearly one-fifth of their possessions due to turnovers, and a hot Xavier squad in the Elite Eight. But the doubters remain for a team with a 55 percent chance to win the national title, per ESPN's BPI.
They're ranked first in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they're as deep as any team in the country.
On Monday, they'll snip the nets as the national champs after a win over North Carolina.
Mark Few's squad is the only team in Glendale -- and perhaps the entire NCAA tournament -- with the bodies to disrupt the interior intentions of North Carolina's strong frontcourt.
Collins, Karnowski, Johnathan Williams and Killian Tillie are all 6-9 or taller. North Carolina is the best offensive rebounding team in the country. In the NCAA tournament, however, the Tar Heels haven't encountered this combination of frontcourt size, skill and athleticism; and that will also prove difficult to defend on the other end of the floor.
It's an efficient group of bigs. And Collins, Tillie and Williams have all made at least 40 percent of their 3-point attempts.
That's how the Bulldogs will stretch the floor against the Tar Heels and create more opportunities for Williams-Goss and Gonzaga's other guards to penetrate. It's a unique offensive scheme to defend.
But Gonzaga -- a team that has struggled on the offensive end throughout the NCAA tournament -- will win the national championship against North Carolina off its defense.
Gonzaga's opponents have made just 27.8 percent of their contested shots in the NCAA tournament, and the Bulldogs have contested 76 percent of their opponents' attempts in that stretch, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Translation: There's always a hand in your face against the tenacious Zags.
North Carolina is a great team with a roster full of stars. But Berry is human. We'll learn as much on Monday, when his two bad ankles begin to limit his movement the way they did against Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Gonzaga's ability to limit North Carolina's production inside, along with Few's defensive tools, Berry's ankle issues and a Bulldogs offense that should regain its mojo, will converge to silence all haters and send the national championship trophy to Spokane, Washington, for the first time.
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